Metaculus

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

Metaculus is a Public Benefit Corporation

This organizational structure enables us to serve the public good through the following commitments in our charter:

1. Fostering the growth, learning, and development of the forecasting and forecasting research communities.

2. Supporting stakeholders who are serving the public good by informing their decision making.

3. Increasing public access to information regarding forecasts of public interest.

Mission

To build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges.

Values

• We Value Community

• We Respect Knowledge & Truth

• We Create Public Accountability and Trust

• We Build for Transparency & Understanding

• We Build Tools for Collaborative Systems Thinking

How Metaculus Works

The platform brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for thousands of forecasters via explicit, standardized track records.

Aggregation: Independent forecasts are statistically aggregated to harness the wisdom of crowds.

Recalibration & Weighting: Forecasts are differentially recalibrated and weighted based on forecaster track records.

Scoring & Feedback: We rigorously evaluate all our predictions and score their accuracy.