Russell Cottam

I’m an analytical financial modeler and Quant Analytics Manager with a career spanning credit risk, market risk, and economic capital models across consumer and commercial sectors. I began as Key’s original model validation manager and then expanded into operational risk modeling, CCAR/CECL modeling, climate risk, and anti-money laundering and fraud initiatives.

At Key Bank, I built and advanced Probability of Default (PD) methodologies, including logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression, enhanced with fractional polynomials, restricted cubic splines, and weight of evidence. I also introduced the Begg and Grey methodology while working with Oliver Wyman to develop consumer real estate CCAR model components.

I lead Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling using approaches such as the zero-one inflated beta method, fractional logistic regression, and regression trees. For climate risk, I helped translate external catastrophe modeling outputs into Loan-to-Value (LTV) and Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR) shocks and run them through Key’s internal CECL and risk rating models—an early, first-of-its-kind climate risk model for quantifying real estate portfolio risk under climate scenarios.

Before finance, I spent years at NASA Glenn Research Center modeling space plasma dynamics—where I introduced a unique partial differential equation solving method using low-order Chebyshev polynomials in connected subdomains with dynamic boundaries.